Just 60 days prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
